вторник, 29 ноември 2011 г.

Положението е сериозно

Prepare for riots in euro collapse

British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.
As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible. Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.

Diplomats have also been told to prepare to help tens of thousands of British citizens in eurozone countries with the consequences of a financial collapse that would leave them unable to access bank accounts or even withdraw cash.

Some economists believe that at worst, the outright collapse of the euro could reduce GDP in its member-states by up to half and trigger mass unemployment. Analysts at UBS, an investment bank earlier this year warned that the most extreme consequences of a break-up include risks to basic property rights and the threat of civil disorder. "When the unemployment consequences are factored in, it is virtually impossible to consider a break-up scenario without some serious social consequences," UBS said.



The eurozone really has only days to avoid collapse

Last week, the crisis reached a new qualitative stage. With the spectacular flop of the German bond auction and the alarming rise in short-term rates in Spain and Italy, the government bond market across the eurozone has ceased to function.
The banking sector, too, is broken. Important parts of the eurozone economy are cut off from credit. The eurozone is now subject to a run by global investors, and a quiet bank run among its citizens.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/ 28 noem


Elite bonds

The German government is considering the possibility of issuing joint bonds with five fellow triple A euro zone countries that are being referred to as "elite bonds" or "AAA bonds," newspaper Die Welt reported on Monday.

Chancellor Angela Merkel and her center-right government have repeated ruled out collectivizing debt and the introduction of common euro zone bonds. The conservative daily cited "high European Union diplomats" involved in fighting the sovereign debt crisis saying the Berlin government was nevertheless considering issuing bonds jointly with France, Finland, Netherlands, Luxembourg and Austria.

The joint bonds could be used not only to finance borrowing for those six countries but also could be used to raise funds under strict conditions for countries such as Italy and Spain, the newspaper reported.



Eurozone Could Be Extinct in 6 Months

Very bad things happened in the last few months in Europe, which imposed changes in Bulgaria's fiscal policy, says Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Simeon Djankov.

According to the Minister, there is a real chance the Eurozone could fall apart in the next 6 months. "Luckily, we have not introduced the EUR, so we will not be affected that much. People's bank savings are guaranteed, but there is a threat for our export – we must redirect it to Asia and Russia, which cannot happen in the course of several months," the Minister pointed out.


до 2-3 месеца

С всеки ден получаваме все по-негативни новини. За мен е въпрос на седмици – до 2-3 месеца в сегашния си вид Еврозоната да пропадне. Това каза вицепремиерът и финансов министър Симеон Дянков, във връзка с думите на министър Трайчо Трайков, че не сме се отказали от намерението си да влезем в Еврозоната, предаде репортер на Агенция „Фокус”.
„Все по-актуално е. И днес канцлерът Меркел беше в техния парламент и държа дълга реч, основата на която беше, че според нея (това е и моето виждане) в следващите месец-два Европа трябва да се фокусира върху създаването на фискален съюз. Това е нещо различно от Еврозоната. Не изключва съществуването на Еврозоната, но за немското правителство и няколко други правителства, както и за нашето – мнението ни е, че ако бързо се създаде фискалният съюз, е единственият начин - въобще да се мисли за запазване на Еврозоната.



Mass downgrade

Germany and France have denounced Standard & Poor's warning that it may carry out an unprecedented mass downgrade of eurozone countries, a move which analysts have described as logical but tactless.
The two countries pledged to continue to "reinforce the governance of the euro area" and "foster stability, competitiveness and growth." Sarkozy and Merkel said they would "take note" of the S&P's warning. As well as Germany and France, Austria, the Netherlands, Finland and Luxembourg also currently have top AAA rating.

The ratings agency said the decision was prompted "by our belief that systemic stresses in the eurozone have risen in recent weeks to the extent that they now put downward pressure on the credit standing of the eurozone as a whole". Analysts say S&P wants eurozone leaders to understand how much is at stake if this week's summit is another damp squib.

The news overshadowed talks in Paris between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who proposed that a new EU treaty is adopted to tackle the crisis. It also comes just days before a European Union summit on Friday that is intended to deliver a convincing agreement on how to solve the region's debt crisis.



Малцина са очаквали

Броени дни преди срещата на държавните и правителствените ръководители на ЕС в Брюксел, на която трябва да бъде решено бъдещето на еврото, рейтинговата агенция „Стандарт енд Пуърс” реши да засили натиска. Тя обяви, че поставя 15 страни от еврозоната под наблюдение с възможност за негативно преразглеждане. Това означава, че шестте страни с максимален рейтинг „ААА” могат да го изгубят, съобщава австрийският вестник „Ди Пресе”. Рейтингът на Австрия може да бъде понижен с един пункт, но на други страни с цели два. Новата мярка няма да се отнася за Кипър и Гърция, чиито рейтинги вече са понижени.

Най-тежки биха били последиците за водещите държави – Германия, Франция, Холандия, Финландия, Люксембург и Австрия. Предупреждението на рейтинговата агенция идва напълно изненадващо. Малцина са очаквали, че някой може да постави под съмнение максималния рейтинг на Германия.


„Положението е сериозно, еврото може да рухне и Европа да се разпадне. Това може да бъде катастрофално не само за Европа и Франция, но и за целия свят”, заяви [френският министър по европейските въпроси] Жан Леонети пред френска телевизия няколко часа преди началото на срещата за дълговата криза между европейските лидери в Брюксел.



20 дни по-късно:

Taboo topic

Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank, has warned that a break-up of the eurozone would mean greater economic hardship for those leaving the currency.

His comments highlight the depth of the eurozone debt crisis as talk of a collapse of the currency union has until now been regarded as taboo at the central bank.
His predecessor, Jean-Claude Trichet, refused to entertain the scenario, calling it "absurd".
Mr Draghi, speaking to the Financial Times, said that if a country left the euro, it would in the end be forced to undertake the same harsh austerity measures and reforms being imposed at present, "but would be in a weaker position".

Mr Draghi also cautioned that a break-up would create stresses and unknown consequences for those nations remaining in the euro. "You would have a substantial breach of the existing treaty. And when one starts with this you never know how its ends."
He remained adamant that the ECB should not start printing money and urged that political leaders to move fast to make the European rescue fund operational or face higher costs.

His comments come amid increasing tensions within the eurozone and the European Union, with increasing speculation that at least one struggling, debt-laden nation will drop the currency.


Няма коментари: