сряда, 18 януари 2012 г.

Политически риск?

For Western economies, the main point is that the days when "political risk" was seen only to apply to emerging markets are a thing of the past.

Germany's economy might be strong enough to preserve its AAA rating for the time being, but it is clear that whether or not the euro survives and its constituent nations remain creditworthy comes down to the bloc's leadership.
Investors in euro zone assets might still study economic data or guidance, but as they focus on in-built problems ignored for years they know they are essentially making bets on political decisions as yet undertaken and at worst unachievable.

The only good news, some say, is that the recent downgrade means Europe and perhaps the wider West is finally confronting its true situation.
"The main effect... could be more honest dialogue about the real reasons for the crisis... and leave us better off as talk finally centers on reality rather than hope," wrote Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank. "Effectively S&P did what it was supposed to do, it ignored the "PowerPoint presentation" from the EU and looked only at the accounts. The accounts speak clearly for themselves - no progress, no real plans."

Whether the political systems that served western states in decades or longer of economic growth can deliver that is another question. As the euro zone struggles to act, in Washington DC the key danger may be that the system of constitutional "checks and balances" produces a deadlocked Congress and weakened executive that simply finds fiscal policy making impossible.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/17/us-economy-global-shift-idUSTRE80G0R120120117

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